U.S. Rep. Marc Molinaro, R-Catskill, narrowly won an open seat in New York’s 19th Congressional District two years ago. Now, in a high-turnout presidential election year, he faces a rematch with Southern Tier lawyer Josh Riley in a district that’s a top target for state and national Democrats. Scott Langley file photo

 

By MAURY THOMPSON
Contributing writer

The two candidates vying to represent New York’s competitive 19th Congressional District both say their top priority is finding ways to re-engage voters who feel overlooked by their government.

“What they want is a government that respects them,” said freshman Rep. Marcus Molinaro, R-Catskill, who’s campaigning for a second term in Washington after serving as Dutchess County executive for a decade — and in the state Assembly and a series of other local offices before that.

Democratic challenger Josh Riley says he’s “running as an outsider” who could give the district’s voters a new voice. A public interest lawyer who grew up in the Binghamton area, he started his career as an aide to the late Maurice Hinchey, a longtime Democratic congressman from the Hudson Valley. Riley later earned a law degree at Harvard and held a series of positions in Washington, including as a staff counsel for the Senate Judiciary Committee, before returning to upstate New York.

“I’m running for Congress to give the underdog a fair shot,” Riley said.
Political analysts say the contest between Molinaro and Riley is the only competitive House race this year across the region from Vermont and western Massachusetts into the eastern border counties of New York.

But it could help to decide which party winds up in control of the U.S. House, where Republicans now hold a razor-thin majority. Democrats need a net gain of only four seats across the nation to recapture the House majority, and the 19th district is one of at least four in New York alone that analysts say the party has a chance of flipping.

The contest between Molinaro and Riley is a rematch of their 2022 race, in which Molinaro prevailed by fewer than 4,500 votes, a margin of 1.5 percentage points, for what was then an open seat created under a court-ordered redistricting plan.

The 19th district, which was redrawn again earlier this year by the Legislature, now stretches from the New England border to the Pennsylvania state line, taking in Columbia County, most of Rensselaer County and all or part of nine other counties to the west, including the cities of Binghamton and Ithaca.

Courting independents, moderates
Analysts say voter enrollment in the reconfigured 19th district tilts slightly more toward Republicans than it did in 2022. But President Biden carried the territory in the redrawn district by four percentage points in 2020.

In a district where independent and moderate voters might prove decisive, both candidates have tried at times to distance themselves from unpopular politicians and policies of their own parties.
So in an interview in mid-July, at a time when many Democrats were calling on Biden to abandon his re-election bid in the aftermath of his poor debate performance, Riley took a swipe at the Democratic president while criticizing his Republican opponent.

“Joe Biden and Marc Molinaro, they are both career politicians,” Riley said.
Molinaro, in a telephone interview the next day, chuckled about the comparison.
“Joe Biden I think was elected to the Senate before I was born, so I don’t think we have much in common,” he said, adding that he believes Riley is more closely aligned with Biden’s policies.
At the outset of his term last year, however, Molinaro did speak respectfully of Biden, saying he hoped they could perhaps find areas of agreement on some issues. He also joined the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and proclaimed himself a “governing-minded Republican” – in contrast to the hard-right conservatives who dominate the GOP caucus.

“For me, when the roof leaks, it leaks on Republicans and Democrats alike, and our job is to fix the roof,” Molinaro said last month.

Riley, too, has experience working with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle in his work as a U.S. Senate policy adviser, a role in which he drafted bipartisan legislation on topics such as immigration, domestic violence and funding for law enforcement.

But political observers said Riley’s tactic of criticizing his opponent in the same breath as the incumbent president of his own party is unusual.

“It’s really uncommon,” said Robert Turner, a political science professor at Skidmore College.
It could be a reflection of the president’s declining popularity in New York. Biden carried the state by 23 percentage points in 2020, but as of July 16 the FiveThirtyEight.com polling average for this year’s presidential race showed Biden leading Donald Trump by just 9.1 percentage points in New York. Four days later, Biden ended his campaign.

Even so, Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist in New York City who isn’t involved in the 19th district race, questioned the wisdom of Riley’s statement.

“Riley’s linking of Molinaro to Biden is not a good move, because it is not a credible argument,” Sheinkopf said. “It doesn’t make sense.”

Turner, the Skidmore professor, said at first blush, the tactic seems “a little unusual,” given that about 90 percent of voters typically cast ballots for a straight party line. So criticizing the Democratic president wouldn’t seem the best strategy for winning the support of core Democratic voters. But it could be a strategy for Riley to appeal to those who are “very disenchanted” and do not regularly vote in elections, he added.

“His polling has got to show that his strategy somehow makes sense, maybe with the swing voters that he needs to win in the district,” Turner said.

 

Tangling over immigration
Riley had previously linked Molinaro with Biden at a June 28 press conference about immigration — an issue on which the Democrat has cast himself as a critic of the president’s policies.
“Our southern border is an absolute disaster,” Riley said then. “Our immigration is system is completely broken. And Joe Biden, Marc Molinaro and career politicians in Washington are failing us by refusing to fix it.”

Riley said at the press conference that Biden has not enforced border regulations and that Molinaro has failed to help strengthen those rules.

The Molinaro campaign responded to Riley’s criticism by launching a digital ad last month labeling Riley as an “architect of the border crisis.” The ad claims that as a lawyer from 2017 to 2019, Riley was involved in 32 lawsuits challenging the Trump administration’s border policies — and that Riley’s legal briefs were signed by Alejandro Mayorkas, who later became Biden’s homeland security secretary — and the object of a House impeachment vote that Molinaro supported in February.

“Now in office, Biden has relied on Riley’s legal theory to justify opening the border,” the Molinaro campaign said in a news release.

Riley said Molinaro’s ad is misleading. The lawsuits he worked on were intended to free up border patrol agents for enforcement activities instead of removing immigrant children from their parents, he explained.

Riley criticized Molinaro for not championing a compromise immigration bill that was crafted by a bipartisan group of senators over a four-month period beginning last October. The bill, described by supporters as the most significant immigration overhaul since the 1980s, would have created a procedure to shut the border at particularly active times, raised the bar for asylum claims and ended the practice of allowing migrants to live in the United States while waiting for their asylum claims to be heard by an immigration judge.

But after Trump objected to the bill – and the possibility that it might help Biden politically – House Speaker Mike Johnson made it clear in February that he would not allow a vote on the Senate proposal. After that, support for the bill collapsed among Senate Republicans, who were unwilling to vote for a controversial bill if it had no chance of becoming law.

Molinaro said simply that he didn’t support the legislation because it never came up for a vote in the House.

“If the Senate would have approved a bill, we would have negotiated,” he said.
Molinaro said he and other upstate House members, including Democrats, signed a letter asking President Biden to intervene and prevent undocumented immigrants being housed in New York City from being relocated to upstate communities.

“Joe Biden ignored it,” he said.
He also argued that Riley supported Biden’s immigration policies in the 2022 congressional race, and he called Riley’s stance now an “attempt to flip flop.”

Molinaro said the federal government should end the policy of releasing undocumented immigrants while they await a hearing, should step up deportation of undocumented immigrants, and should improve its process for handling requests from those seeking political asylum.
Riley said border crossing by undocumented immigrants should be controlled through a combination of constructing new border wall in some sections, erection of fences in others, and using drone technology in areas where a physical barrier is impractical. He said new electronic technology could be used to detect fentanyl and prevent it from being brought into the United States. He also said more visas should be available for agricultural workers.

Shifting political winds
Back in February, Politico characterized Molinaro as “one of the most vulnerable” incumbents in the state, but his re-election chances appear to have improved in recent months.
Democrats had planned a strategy of linking Molinaro to Trump.

But Molinaro, generally regarded as a moderate, has bucked his party on a few issues.
He was among a handful of Republican House members, for example, who blocked passage of a spending bill because it included a provision to limit access to a leading abortion medication. Politico also reported that Molinaro has lobbied Johnson, the House speaker, to oppose cuts in food stamp benefits.

Multiple news outlets have reported that Molinaro became a confidant of Johnson after Molinaro made a speech rallying support for Johnson in a closed-door caucus meeting last year. It was the last round of a leadership battle that led to Republicans uniting behind Johnson as the new speaker after three weeks of paralysis and infighting.

Sheinkopf said in mid-July that Molinaro’s odds of re-election have improved this year as both Biden and Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul watched their favorability ratings fall.
“Molinaro should have the edge,” he said.

But Biden’s decision to drop his re-election bid, and the ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee, could shift the dynamics of the race in the weeks ahead.

Riley, interviewed in mid-July before Biden’s announcement, didn’t answer definitively when asked if the president should withdraw.

“Most of the voters I talk to wish they had different options, and they want new leadership,” Riley said. “They’re not wrong.”

 

Differing backgrounds, abortion stances
If Harris is able to rekindle the enthusiasm of Democratic-leaning voters and spur a robust turnout in November, that could work to Riley’s benefit.

“It is a competitive seat,” said John Faso, a Columbia County Republican who represented an earlier configuration of the district for a single term in 2017-18 before losing his re-election bid.
“Molinaro is in good position to win re-election,” Faso said in mid-July, before Biden dropped out. “He has worked the district hard, and he is ranked as a very bipartisan legislator.”

Faso pointed to a ranking by The Lugar Center, a nonprofit group founded by the late Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., that rated Molinaro as the second-most bipartisan House member based on his sponsorship and co-sponsorship of bipartisan legislation.

Although Molinaro spent most of his career before 2022 as an elected official in Dutchess County — he first made headlines in 1995 when he was elected village mayor in Tivoli at the age of 19 — he became familiar to voters across the state at the Republican candidate for governor in 2018. He generally stuck to moderate stances in that race and kept his distance from then-President Trump, but he garnered less than 37 percent of the vote as Andrew Cuomo cruised to a third term.

Molinaro said his background in local government has provided him with insight on how federal policies affect communities.

Riley said his dual experience as a lawyer and as a congressional policy adviser gives him a unique perspective. He said he has learned to respect the views of Republicans — a group that includes his mother.

“I am a Democrat, and I come from a Republican family,” Riley said. “So you can imagine the debates over dinner.”

Riley said one issue — abortion — clearly distinguishes the two candidates. He has pledged that if elected, he would co-sponsor legislation to reinstate abortion rights that were provided under the longstanding Roe v. Wade precedent that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down two years ago. He also supports a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights.

“It’s a really stark contrast between my opponent and myself,” he said.
Molinaro said he opposes a national abortion ban, supports continued access to in vitro fertilization, and supports efforts to improve prenatal and neonatal health care.

 

Cash and endorsements
As the fall campaign approaches, Riley is enjoying a cash advantage. He had raised $5.28 million in donations and had just over $4 million on hand in his campaign fund as of June 30, according to the most recent reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Molinaro’s campaign had raised $3.68 million and had $2.26 million on hand as of June 30.
The biggest contrast between the candidates’ financial reports is in their contributions from political action committees. Molinaro had received $1.33 million from PACs, while Riley had received just under $300,000 as of June 30. Riley said he does not accept contributions from corporate PACs but does accept contribution from labor union and issue-related PACs, such as those formed by environmental groups.

The National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee both have targeted the race, and independent groups are expected to weigh in with ads promoting or opposing Molinaro and Riley as Election Day approaches.
Labor unions, which generally tend to favor Democrats, are split in their endorsements in the race.

Molinaro had 15 union endorsements as of July 10, including from several local units of the United Electrical Workers, the Binghamton-Oneonta Building Trades Council of AFL-CIO, and the North Atlantic States Regional Council of Carpenters.

Riley had four labor endorsements as of July 10, including from 1199 SEIU, the nation’s largest healthcare workers union, and the New York State Nurses Association.

As of mid-July, nonpartisan political analysts rated the race as competitive or leaning toward Molinaro. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, both rated the race as a toss-up, while Inside Elections rated it as “tilt Republican.”

An election forecast from The Hill, a national political journal, rated the race as “leans Republican,” with Molinaro given a 69 percent chance of winning as of July 9.
Riley began his television advertising campaign on July 16 with a basic biographical ad.